High-potency cannabis dominates Germany's booming market

Supply and demand of medical cannabis in Germany after legalisation: exploring 12 months of data from an online dispensary.

The International journal on drug policy • • Moderately Relevant
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AI Summary

Following Germany's decision to remove medical cannabis from its list of narcotic drugs in April 2024, a thriving commercial market has rapidly emerged. Over a 12-month period, one online dispensary saw its available products grow from 266 to 401 varieties, with nearly 1,000 different cannabis flower products offered throughout the study. The median THC concentration remained relatively stable, but prices dropped significantly—decreasing by approximately 0.003€ per week—suggesting intense market competition as suppliers vie for customers in this newly legalized space.

The study reveals clear patterns in what German consumers are purchasing: products with 20-29.9% THC made up more than two-thirds of total demand, and consumers strongly preferred higher-potency options. For every percentage point increase in THC content, demand rose substantially, while higher prices drove demand down significantly. Notably, about half of all products changed prices at least once during the study period, with price reductions consistently triggering increased sales. This dynamic pricing and aggressive competition suggest that a robust market is developing rapidly.

However, researchers express concern that market trends may not align with public health best practices. The strong consumer preference for cheap, high-THC products contrasts sharply with medical evidence on safe cannabis use, raising questions about whether current German regulations adequately protect patients' health. As the world watches Germany's medical cannabis market evolve, this case study highlights the tension between market forces and evidence-based medicine—a challenge that will likely shape cannabis policy discussions globally.

📄 Original Abstract

In April 2024, medical cannabis was removed from the list of narcotic drugs in Germany. This case study explores trends in the supply and demand of medical cannabis over a one-year period. Information on available cannabis flower products (including product names, sales prices, stock quantities and THC and CBD concentrations) was regularly accessed from one online dispensary in Germany. Product demand was ascertained by differences in stock quantity over time. Accounting for the impact of %THC and prices, the supply and demand of medical cannabis were explored. Between December 2024 (n=266) and November 2025 (n=401), the number of cannabis flower products available for purchase increased (total availability across the study period: n=996). Median %THC remained mostly stable, but the price per 10mg THC dropped by -0.003€ every week (95% Confidence Interval[CI]: -0.004 to -0.002€). Products with 20 to 29.9% THC made up more than two-thirds of total demand. Product demand quantities increased with every percentage point higher %THC (Incidence Rate Ratio[IRR]=1.13, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.17) and decreased with every € higher price (IRR=0.59, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.63; R2 = 0.38). The price changed at least once for about every second product, with price reductions being associated with demand increases. This case study suggests that a highly dynamic commercial market for medical cannabis is evolving in Germany. The increasing demand for cheap products with high %THC contrasts with the available evidence on the safe use of medical cannabis use. Current regulation of the medical cannabis market may not align with public health principles.

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