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- Mapping pathways to an inclusive and competitive cannabis industry in South Africa through systems thinking and systems dynamics modelling.
South Africa’s cannabis reforms could widen rural participation
Mapping pathways to an inclusive and competitive cannabis industry in South Africa through systems thinking and systems dynamics modelling.
AI Summary
South Africa’s cannabis sector is being reshaped by the National Cannabis Master Plan, but the study finds that implementation has remained fragmented and has often excluded smallholder, rural, and traditional cultivators. Using systems thinking and system dynamics modelling, the researchers identified centralized licensing, limited access to finance, and poor coordination between institutions as major barriers to participation in the legal market.
The model tested five policy scenarios over ten years. It found that decentralised licensing, improved access to finance, and cooperative support could increase both smallholder participation and legal cultivation compared with the current approach. By Year 10, access-to-finance reform produced 1304 smallholder participants, decentralised licensing produced 1249, and export facilitation produced 1161; export support showed stronger effects on cultivated area than on broad participation. The study concludes that coordinated, practical reforms are needed to bring historically marginalized producers into South Africa’s formal cannabis economy while supporting industry competitiveness.
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